Posts in CHANCERY BRAIN
The SafeMax 4% Theory

The 4% Rule was defined in America by Bill Bengen using US stocks and bonds records, along with US inflation. This is Bill's original essay and calculations. The study does not transpose to the UK because UK equity, fixed income and inflation levels are not the same; the principle is valid in the UK but not the calculation.

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Understanding inflation, by looking at inflation and deflation together

This is what’s called macro – it’s to do with wealth in a country, a continent, the world, and within that macro environment we all exist, earn and pay our bills. The macro measures big ticket items, like the price of everything at the factory gate

We draw on Irving Fischer’s book “Money Illusion” and examine what inflation and deflations means to us.

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Jargon Busting

As in every industry, the number of financial planners claiming to be experts are endless, but in reality, very few will give clear, personalised expert advice to those who are not planning investing with gold bars and computer code and mid-Atlantic hotel rooms.

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Income Investing Via Natural income

Research from the perspective of a mathematical theorist examining the patterns and behaviours of trust dividend payments to determine confidence levels for future projections via algorithms, and, specifically, the correlations to be found within the trusts. This drills down into the actual volatility of income to determine whether or not the term ‘risk’ is being correctly applied to income streams.

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Dividend Return Projections

From an actuary’s perspective, the dividend returns of a pre-selected set of investment trusts are analysed to determine the mathematical relationship between demonstrable historical movements and future projections. It considers confidence levels within set bounds by calculating correlations and measuring causation effects, comparing model forecasts against actual portfolio returns.

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